Astroball
is a business-data-baseball book that is directly inspired by Moneyball,
which detailed the first efforts by a major league team to integrate data
science into its process. Astroball is sort of a follow up from 10-15
years later as the Astros integrate the Moneyball analytics sweeping the
league with the gut intelligence of their scouts and other immeasurable factors
to rise from the ashes to become a championship team. Reiter says that Astros
GM Jeff Luhnow did not see scouts and analytics as an either/or competition, despite
the fact that conflict emerged. He saw each as a way to complement the other.
A
crucial intangible that may be the next frontier in data measurements is the
effect of certain personalities in the clubhouse. For the Astros, a major key
to their World Series Championship season in 2017 was 40-year-old veteran
Carlos Beltran. Beltran was not at the peak of his career anymore, but he used
his baseball knowledge to make other players better. He spent hours watching
tape of pitchers and analyzing all their movements to see if they had a tell
that would “tip” what pitches they were going to throw. He would share his discoveries
with teammates, an improvement not often reflected in any statistic. As a
bilingual player, he was especially helpful. He would advise Spanish-speaking
teammates on how to handle post-game interviews and serve as a bridge between
players. A player who not only speaks two languages but wants to serve as a
friendly connection between those two worlds is a huge asset to a team beyond
their batting average.
Some of what
is suggested about the future is a little strange. For example, two professors
who worked with the Astros and now work with NASA on the effects of various
personalities on a team want to install cameras in the clubhouse to analyze
every interaction and conversation. They would even like to use biometric devices
to record stress levels and heart rates to better study the interactions. While
I’m sure that interesting data could be gained, it doesn’t look good for the
future of people’s privacy. Despite that, the book ends by telling us that “there
would always be a role for gut feels.” I would say that this is true but
remember that gut feels aren’t based on nothing. Our intuition is based on
connecting what we already know, so collecting data only makes our gut
decisions better. At the edge of quantitative data, there must always be an
interpreter.
Miscellaneous Facts:
- Not even ten percent of the baseball players drafted will ever step onto a major league field for a single inning.
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