Botswana - A Modern Economic History: An African Diamond in the Rough by Ellen Hillbom and Jutta Bolt

     This was a really cool very academic book on Botswana's economy. I just read it because I was curious to see what the "Botswanan economic miracle" really was, and it turns out it's based on two economic booms from cattle and diamonds. I think that it further confirms my thoughts on economic growth being identifiable to specific policies and conditions that are not in an sort of cycle. The assumption that there is some kind of "developing" status of high growth that countries can have until they reach a "developed" status and enter lower growth sounds like nonsense to me, and so I like books like this that can trace a country's development to it's specific conditions. Unfortunately for other countries that seek to grow richer, Botswana's path does not seem easily replicable or particularly desirable. The book itself is extremely meticulous in citing sources and is very well-researched.

    Botswana's modern population is descended from Tswana groups that moved north in the period known as Difaqane (or Mfecane, meaning "the crushing") in the 1830s and 1840s, displaced by Anglo, Dutch, Zulu, Bakololo, and Amandebele groups in a period of turmoil. They overran the native Basarwa population, turning them into an ethnic minority faced with discrimination. Most of the territory of Botswana is inhospitable, with a large desert dominating the center and west of the country and just a dry plain in the east providing most of the livable area and pasture for livestock.

    There is evidence of livestock management in modern-day Botswana for at least the last 2,200 years, but until the 1920s, cattle ranching was restricted by water resources. Ranchers could only keep as many head of cattle as they could support by natural waters and hand-dug natural wells in the hardveld, the rocky and hard terrain that dominated the Botswanan plain. In the 1920s, modern boreholes created reliable sources of water in all seasons that opened up new grazing areas in the dryer western sandveld. But the benefits of cattle ranching were shared by few, and Botswana was an undeveloped backwater at its independence in 1966. The entire country had just twelve kilometers of paved roads, twenty-two university graduates, and 100 students with a secondary degree. But this was due not to extractive policies, as is often the case in colonized regions, but due to dependence on cattle-ranching, a law-value resource with limited opportunities for export. In the 1930s and 1940s there were more calls for development than for independence, and in fact it was Britain that pushed for independence. The major politicians both before and after independence were the large cattle ranchers, including the presidents Sir Seretse Khama and Ketumile Masire, such that there were not major changes in the economy as a result of independence. Botswana's peaceful transition to democracy and independence made it an exception in the region.

    In 1967, diamonds were discovered in Botswana, and that sector came to dominate the economy. From Botswana's independence, mining as a portion of GDP has grown from 5% in 1966 to 50% in 1986, declining to about 25% by 2010. Meanwhile, agriculture plummeted from 40% to 3%, with manufacturing stagnant at 5% throughout. Almost all of these changes are attributable to the growth of the diamond mining industry, even the growth of the service sector to 65% of the economy. Services are mostly low-productivity in the public sector, hotels, and restaurants. The diamond boom dwarfed the cattle boom, but unfortunately kept Botswana in a single-resource-dependent economic growth model. Moreover, the inequality that the cattle ranching system perpetuated was only furthered by a reliance on diamond mining. That said, diamond mining has secured large revenues for the government due to a 50/50 contract with De Beers, which have mostly been invested wisely. From 1965-2005, the country's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 9.5%, with a staggering increase of 26% from 1971-72 and a decade-long average of 11% in the 1980s.

    Botswana enjoys some advantages in its diamond mining, such as the fact that diamonds are found deep under Botswana's earth rather than at surface levels such as in Liberia and Sierra Leone. These countries are cursed by their plentiful and easy-to-get diamonds because it allows almost anyone to build a profitable and exploitative mining company, encouraging brutalities that have become synonymous with "blood diamonds." Because extraction of Botswana's diamonds requires more investment, Botswana's government has maintained control over the industry and has been able to manage its currency to avoid external debt problems and maintain net export levels. Botswana has also managed to invest as much as 40% of GDP yearly on infrastructure and human capital. The country went from twelve km of paved roads in 1966 to 9,000 km today. Now the country has four international airports, 3.3 million mobile phones, and 870,000 internet users. 96% of the population has reliable access to improved water sources, with adult literacy rates at 88% and 23% having gained some tertiary education. However, diamond mining is not all good, as it only employs a workforce of 8,000 paid employees, or just 2% of the total labor force. It packs a big punch, but most people are not involved in that production.

    In sum, Botswana's "economic miracle" is not so miraculous. The real miracle is not that Botswana has grown, but that it was able to maintain democracy while also being a rentier state. Unfortunately, Botswana remains extremely unequal, its Gini coefficient being at .6 while the USA (a fairly unequal country) is at about .4. Now I imagine is the time for Botswana to transition its economy before it runs out of diamonds, and to invest its profits from diamond-mining into some state-supported export industries. If Botswana could build a manufacturing base for electronics or machinery and a well-educated population to produce those goods for export, that would be a huge success.

Miscellaneous Facts:

• While Botswana is a multi-party democracy, it has been ruled by the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) for its entire post-independence history.
• Botswana is one of the worst-hit countries in the world by HIV/AIDS, with a 22% prevalence in those aged 15-49 as of 2017.
• The book doesn't get into tourism, but I see online that it makes up 12% of the country's economy today.

Nigeria (Africa in Focus) by Toyin Falola and Bukola Adeyemi Oyeniyi

    This is a book that is meant as a kind of introductory text for a class about Nigeria, covering the broad topics regarding the country like a kind of expanded encyclopedia page. I thought it was a very digestible read, but it left me wanting more on certain topics since it was so brief. That said, I feel like I got a good introduction and valuable background information that will inform me in future readings on Nigeria.

    Nigeria did not exist as a political entity until the arrival of British colonization late in the nineteenth century. Even the major ethnic groups that exist today had not coalesced, and so the authors write that there was no Yoruba people, but instead Oyo, Ijebu, Ife, and others. There were no Hausa, no Fulani, no Igbo, and no Niger-Delta. All of those names were given to Nigerians by Europeans, and the generic names relate to languages rather than ethnic compositions. The British practiced divide-and-rule tactics that privileged the Muslim north, allowing the emirs to maintain their hold on society, limiting nationalist sentiments mainly just to Islamic ideals. In the south, the British courted the established, traditional authorities while marginalizing educated elites. In the end, the northern regions of Nigeria ended up favored and are still politically stronger to this day. In the colonial economy, the British tried to expand the Nigerian economy through the export of raw materials and import of finished goods (essentially mercantilism), to bring Nigeria to a cash economy based on the pound sterling, and to force Nigerians to work for British currency. While these were all meant to make Nigeria dependent upon Britain, they did result in some British investment into Nigeria, such as new railroads and development of the harbor in Lagos.

    Nigeria gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1960, but it spent the rest of the twentieth century dealing with political instability. The first coup came in 1966, when the Igbo Major General Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi created a new military government. But he was not acceptable to Hausa soldiers in the army, who replaced him just a few months later in July 1966 with Lt. Col. Yakubu Gowon. Then, things got out of hand in September 1966 when Hausa soldiers attacked and massacred Igbos living in northern Nigeria. This led to the Biafran Civil War until 1970, in which Igbos in the east of the country sought to escape persecution by creating their own state that would protect them. But the government won the war and reintegrated the Igbos into Nigeria. The suffering of the Igbo people was enormous, and about 2 million Igbos were killed in the war, with 3.5 million dead total, mostly young children who starved.

    Nigeria joined OPEC in 1971 and has since then made lots of money as an oil exporter. General Murtala Muhammad staged a bloodless coup in 1975 to oust Gowon, but he was assassinated in 1979 and replaced by Lt. Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo. In 1979, Nigeria adopted a constitution modeled on the American system, but the civilian administration that implemented it managed to break the cycle of military coups. But not for long. On December 31, 1983, a bloodless coup put Major General Muhammadu Buhari in power, allegedly overthrowing the government to get control of unbridled corruption and to turn back economic decline (which was really probably the result of falling oil prices in the early 1980s). While Buhari was successful in bringing inflation down from 23% to 4%, his human rights record was abysmal, arresting more than 500 politicians, businessmen, journalists, and others in just two years. Buhari fought a "war against indiscipline," punishing people for littering, cheating, rushing onto buses, working without commitment, not queuing, and other petty offenses.

    But Buhari's hardline was not popular, and another bloodless coup overthrew him in 1985, bringing Major General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida into power from 1985 to 1993. Initially a champion of human rights, Babangida released political prisoners , but over time his approach deteriorated, and he jailed opposition groups, labor leaders, and antiestablishment persons into jail or exile. Babangida finally lifted the ban on political activities in 1989, and announced that elections would be held for Nigeria's legislature in 1992, with a presidential election later in that year. However, the election for president that year was annulled due to alleged fraud. But in June 1993, Nigeria had its fairest and freest elections in its short history, and they returned results for Babangida's opposition. Babangida stepped down and handed power to his second-in-command, General Sani Abacha, who returned the country with military rule, with Abacha's government being synonymous with state-sponsored terrorism and human rights abuses. Although he was a cruel dictator, Abacha was at least successful in his economic program, reducing inflation from 54% to 8.5% and increasing Nigeria's foreign reserves while decreasing Nigeria's debt (all while oil prices were falling). Abacha died of heart failure in 1998, and his replacement, General Abdulsalami Abubakar announced that Nigeria would have elections the next year. There were huge celebrations of Abacha's death throughout the country, and in 1999, Nigerians elected Olusegun Obasanjo as their president, the first of Nigeria's Fourth Republic.

    Over the eight years he was President of Nigeria, Obasanjo made enormous efforts to rid Nigeria of foreign debts, succeeding in getting extensions on $12 million of debt and forgiveness of the other $18 billion of the country's $30 billion total debt. Obasanjo tried to gain a third term in power, but that constitutional amendment was rejected and Umaru Musa Yar'Adua was elected to replace him in 2007. Yar-Adua was forced to seek medical care abroad two years after he took office, and the Senate transferred power to President Goodluck Jonathan in 2010. Since the book was written, Muhammadu Buhari ran for president and won in 2015, returning to power.

    Today, Nigeria has made many improvements, but still struggles. For example, as of the book's publication, 67% of Nigerians still live on less than one dollar per day, and GDP per capita is lower than when Nigeria became independent. Nigeria's oil production has not kept pace, declining from being the world's fifth-largest producer in the 1970s to twelfth today. But Nigeria has great potential, with the world's tenth largest proven oil reserves and the largest natural gas reserves in Africa, still mostly untapped. Nigeria struggles to employ its people, especially the youth. Between 35 and 50% of the unemployed have secondary education and about 40% of the unemployed are between 20 and 24 years of age, with 31% between 15 and 19.

Miscellaneous Facts:

• Nigeria has over 356,000 square miles of land area, making it twice the size of California and one-third larger than Texas.
• More than 90% of Nigeria's revenue comes from the export of crude oil.
• Ife-Ife is considered the cradle of the Yoruba people, founded between the seventh and eleventh centuries.
• Between 1914 and 2014, Nigeria had nine different constitutions.
• In 2014, Nigeria passed a law prohibiting gay relationships, with punishments from 10 to 14 years in prison.
• In pre-colonial times, people used pawnship and indentureship as systems of credit. Pawnship allowed the poor to raise capital by surrendering a family member to provide labor in lieu of interest on a loan, and indentureship sold labor to repay the principle of a debt.
• With more than 170 million people (now already 200 million), Nigeria was already at the time of publication home to twenty percent of Africa's population with only three percent of the continent's land area.
• 45% of Nigerians are Christians, 45% are Muslims, and about 10% practice traditional religion. Catholicism predominates in Igbo areas, while Protestantism is more popular in Yoruba areas.
• In Yoruba languages, military autocracy is known as "government by khaki-wearing people" whereas civil government is known as "government by flowing gown-wearing people."
• Three of the four major African language families are found in Nigeria. Kanuri is a Nilo-Saharan language (as well as Dendi), Hausa is Afro-Asiatic, and Fulani is Niger Congo (also Igbo, Yoruba, and many others, this being the largest group in the country). Only Khoisan languages are not spoken in Nigeria.
• Public speaking is a major part of Yoruba culture, and it is considered a mark of culture to use proverbs, although a younger person should ask the permission of the older to use a proverb, and the elder will usually grant it.
• Benin City is one of the largest cities in Nigeria and flourished until it was sacked by the British in 1897. Its city walls were famous for extending nearly ten thousand miles in 500 twisting settlement boundaries, making them longer than the Great Wall of China, using more material than the Great Pyramid of Cheops. The Benin City Wall was the largest single archaeological structure and the world's largest man-made structure. Today it is being destroyed by development.
• Nigeria has the second-largest number of people living with HIV in the world, with 3% of the population aged 15-50 having the disease.

Hero of Two Worlds: The Marquis de Lafayette in the Age of Revolution by Mike Duncan

     Hero of Two Worlds was an awesome biography of Lafayette. Mike Duncan writes like he talks on his podcast, and that is a very good thing. He tells the story of Lafayette's life like a novel, and it's very easy to read. I haven't read a biography in a while so this was nice to do. I really like to read the story of someone's long life and see the phases they go through.

    Lafayette's early life was marred by horrible tragedies. His father was killed at the Battle of Minden in the Seven Years' War when Lafayette was just two years old. It was the latest in a long line of Lafayette men killed in battle, and left his mother pregnant. She gave birth, but Lafayette's sister died just a few months after birth. Being an only child meant that he would inherit all of his father's wealth. Moreover, to add to the tragedy and to his inheritance, Lafayette's mother died when he was twelve, leaving him an orphan. And because his mother's only brother died as well, Lafayette was left one of the richest orphans in the world. Now one of the richest people in the Kingdom of France, Lafayette had land generating 100,000 livres annually at a time when common laborers could expect to make only 1,000 livres in their entire lives.

    Due to his massive wealth, Lafayette was the most eligible bachelor in France, and he attracted the attention of the Noailles family, a family richer than the royal family with five daughters to marry off. In February 1773, the Noailles moved Lafayette into their family home in Versailles, where he became acquainted with their second daughter, who they secretly planned to marry him to, and they raised him for some years there. In Paris, Lafayette attended lessons with Charles Philippe, comte D'Artois, the third of three princes, all of whom were to become kings of France. At the time, Lafayette was a social outcast, not very good at dancing or riding, and not a social butterfly either. But in April 1774, he married Adrienne Noailles when he was 16 and she was 14, both being young for the social convention at the time.

    Adrienne's father obtained a military commission of Lafayette when he was 18, but it came at the wrong time. Just as he got his commission, the new king, Louis XVI, was abolishing the old familial armies and placing Lafayette in the reserves. Luckily for Lafayette, this was June of 1776, and in July, he met Silas Deane, an American emissary trying to drum up support in France for the nascent American Revolution. Lafayette obtained a commission as a major general, and in the final days of 1776, Lafayette changed his family motto from "determination is enough to overcome adversity" to "why not?" Because French authorities opposed his entry into the war (Louis XVI signed a proclamation singling him out), Lafayette left the country in secret aboard a ship for a two-month journey to Charleston, South Carolina.

    Onboard the ship, Lafayette read military manuals and tried to learn English, and adapted quicker than the other French arrivals who went with him. Unlike them, Lafayette was more idealistic and willing to engage with Americans, using broken English to endear himself to them. Upon arriving in Philadelphia, Lafayette and the other Frenchmen who arrived were met with consternation, as no one had authorized Silas Deane to give out all these officers' commissions. But unlike the other officers who wanted lots of money to serve, Lafayette asked only to be a volunteer, without pay, and to serve directly under George Washington. The Continental Congress agreed, and gave him the (honorary) rank of major general. Lafayette and Washington would eventually have an incredibly close relationship, possibly because Washington had no children and Lafayette had no father. Additionally, Lafayette may have felt more drawn to Washington because Washington referred to all of his staff as his "family," and told Lafayette he would be his son. Apparently, Washington said this to everybody on staff, but it may have had an additional impact on Lafayette due to the language barrier and due to his being an orphan. Lafayette saw his first combat at the Battle of Brandywine Creek. At the battle, he proved his virtues by running towards the combat when he could have stayed back, being that he was only an honorary member of the army. Moreover, he helped direct troops on the front lines, and was shot through the calf, which was reported in newspapers shortly after.

    Washington became Lafayette's idol and he thought the man could do no wrong, especially when Washington turned down multiple offers to become king or to stage a coup to put him in absolute power. At a low point in the war with the Continental Army camped at Valley Forge, when there was talk of removing Washington, Lafayette told Washington that he would resign his commission if that came to pass. Lafayette went back and forth between the colonies and France a few times. He returned first to France in January 1779, now hailed as a hero. He spent the year in France, and on Christmas of 1779 his wife gave birth to a son, who they named Georges Washington Lafayette. But he spent few days with his family, and planned his return to America, where he led troops at Yorktown, ending the American war for independence. He returned home, and by the time he reached the French age of legal majority at 25, he was bankrupting himself with massive spending, high-interest loans and IOUs.

    Lafayette was becoming more and more of a true liberal by the end of 1782 and the beginning of 1783. He wrote to Washington in February of 1783 proposing that they purchase a small estate and free the slaves on it, educating them, and hopefully inspiring slavers across America and the West Indies to do the same. But where Lafayette was idealistic, Washington was not. He gave an answer that Lafayette would end up hearing a lot from Americans when he proposed the eventual abolition of slavery: that it would have to happen eventually, but that it wasn't the right time yet, although they commended Lafayette for feeling that way. It must have been very disappointing and disheartening for Lafayette, although at least in Washington's case, Lafayette would not assign his hero any blame. So in their letters, Washington said it would be better if they discussed it in person. Lafayette and Washington did meet again, but nothing came of it. Lafayette ended up buying his own estate in Cayenne, Guyana, in 1786, and wrote to Washington to tell him about his plan of gradual emancipation and education for seventy slaves of all ages. But he never freed those slaves. Since the plan was for gradual emancipation, education was still ongoing in 1792, when Lafayette's property was seized in the French Revolution. However, France freed all slaves in 1794, so they did eventually obtain their freedom. 

    When the French Revolution began and the National Assembly was convened, Lafayette when to Paris as a representative. Lafayette played no part in the Tennis Court Oath, but he was responsible for drafting large parts of the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen. Shortly thereafter, the Paris electors proclaimed Lafayette the commander-general of the Paris militia, which would soon be renamed the National Guard. Most members of the National Guard did not earn salaries, and the majority had to provide their own weapons, uniforms, and equipment, making the membership lean towards the wealthier classes. Lafayette gave them cockades of red and blue, the colors of Paris, and then added White, the color of the Bourbon monarchy, creating what would eventually become the flag of France.

    I'm not writing much at this point because I am tired, but it is interesting to note that Lafayette marched to stop the women of Paris from arresting King Louis XVI and his family and bringing them back from Versailles. He was initially successful, but when he fell asleep after twenty-four hours awake, they stormed the gates and eventually took the royal family. But problems emerged with Lafayette both being a democratically elected member of the assembly as well as the commander of the National Guard. He had become the most powerful man in Paris in 1790, a position he was uncomfortable with. But by the end of 1790 and surely by the summer of 1791, he sided more with moderates than with the radicals, who were rising. The situation was made worse when the royal family snuck out of Paris on his watch in late June, although they were captured again. But then, on July 17, 1791, when dealing with massive crowds of protestors on the Champ de Mars, the National Guard fired into the crowd, killing protestors, and ending Lafayette's popularity.

    It was then that France was turning truly radical and Lafayette left the country in 1792, expecting to be able to freely send for his family to go live abroad. However, he was jailed by Austria, and suffered poor conditions, little food, and even periods of solitary confinement. At some points he wasn't allowed anything to write with, but used a toothpick and ash to write notes that would be smuggled out. Americans wanted to help him, but our diplomats couldn't risk involving our then-weak nation in a European war so soon. So instead, diplomats were able to convince the French government to delay in executing Lafayette's family (which saved them), and George Washington hosted Lafayette's son, Georges Washington Lafayette, for two years. Washington also sent money in his personal capacity for Lafayette's family to live on. In 1794, Congress passed an allocation to grant funds to Lafayette to support himself in Austrian prison. Lafayette's freedom was only obtained when Napoleon Bonaparte won great victories against Austria in 1797, bargaining for the release of all French prisoners of war and prisoners of state.

    Originally forbidden to return to France, Lafayette and his family lived with the other families of the prisoners of Olmutz in Holstein, on the border of Germany and Denmark. But they were allowed back into France in 1800, but on the condition that Lafayette stay out of politics. And that he did. For the rest of the reign of Napoleon, Lafayette privately opposed the Emperor, but publicly avoided comment. They had some correspondence initially, but that stopped once the extent of their disagreement on the cause of liberty was revealed.

    Lafayette made his triumphant return to America in 1824, which ended up being an 18-month tour, in which he christened a monument on Bunker Hill marking the fiftieth anniversary of that battle and was treated as a beloved celebrity. Lafayette even attended a session of the House of Representatives during the acrimonious "corrupt bargain" that had Henry Clay hand a contested election to John Quincy Adams. It was the end of the Era of Good Feelings, but Lafayette's visit reminded Americans of our (imagined) unity during the Revolution.

    Throughout the 1820s and 1830s, Lafayette may have had some hand in supporting more liberalization, and was accused without evidence of supporting the revolutionary Carbonari in their attempts at revolutions in the 1820s. Returning to politics at the end of his life, Lafayette opposed the dictatorial policies of Charles X and Louis Philippe I. He remained a revolutionary liberal for his entire life, until he died in 1834 at 76 years old. 

Miscellaneous Facts:

• The French city of Auvergne derives its name from Arverni, the ancient Gallic tribe of Vercingetorix, who led the final Gallic resistance to Roman conquest.
• Lafayette owned a slave in Philadelphia, used to run errands. But there are no records made of the boy after September 1777.
• In March of 1784, when his lands in Auvergne were suffering from a poor harvest and famine, Lafayette's financial advisors counselled him to sell stockpiles of grain to fix his poor financial situation. But Lafayette responded that it was precisely the time to be giving grain away, and made sure his people were fed.
• By the mid-1780s, 50% of the French monarchy's annual expenses were interest payments on debt to finance France's participation in the American War of Independence.

The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia by Ian Easton

     I wanted a book about the potential war over Taiwanese freedom and this one fit the bill. Extremely provocative name. I've gotta say it was an extremely good book. Just dense with specific information and well-organized. I felt like Easton clearly knew his stuff and now I am armed with hard knowledge about how Taiwan can defend itself.

    One thing this book makes clear is that China is and has been planning to invade Taiwan. There is no doubt about that. It is the unfinished business of the Chinese Civil War and the centerpiece of the first Pacific island chain that can either serve to lock China in or be a door to Pacific access for the country. Of course, for Taiwanese people, it's their home, and at some point soon they may be forced with the choice to defend it or flee. Easton writes that he addresses the below questions/categories of questions in his book:

1. How do internal Chinese military writings depict the campaign to conquer Taiwan, and what capabilities do they feel are necessary for executing it? How do PLA writings portray their adversary? Where do they see Taiwanese strengths and where do they see weaknesses?

2. How does Taiwan’s military plan to defend the island against Chinese invasion? What capabilities do Taiwanese officers feel are necessary to execute their defense plans? In the worst case, how long could they be expected to hold out before direct American assistance was required?

3. What are the implications for American strategy in Asia? How might policymakers in Washington strengthen Taiwan and prevent China from precipitating a crisis? What might the United States do to better contribute to future peace and stability in this region?

    Originally, China would have invaded Taiwan in the summer of 1950, continuing the war between the Peoples' Republic of China (PRC, China) and the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan). However, in June 1950, North Korea invaded South Korea, requiring China to divert its forces and not invade Taiwan. But Easton writes that a Communist invasion of Taiwan seemed unlikely to be successful at that time anyway. Despite being far stronger on land, the Communists were weaker in the air and at sea, with zero experience conducting amphibious and naval warfare. The plan had been to practice for an invasion of Taiwan by assaulting some of the small islands that the Nationalists held, but failed in both attempts, losing over ten thousand troops. Additionally, in March of 1950, the PRC spy network in Taiwan collapsed thanks to a major defection, neutralizing 80 different operations and leading to the arrest of 400 PRC secret agents in Taiwan.

    But even if the PRC had gone ahead to invade Taiwan in 1950 had there been none of the above setbacks, Easton writes that the plan was not that good. PRC plans called for an assault of between 200,000 to 360,000 troops on Taiwan's beaches with a force of 25,000 paratroopers landing behind Taiwanese lines. The plan called for fifteen days and expected 100,000 casualties. But Easton points out that this is incredibly unrealistic. On its face, it seems crazy to expect to win a war in two weeks while also losing between a third and half of your invasion force. Those two things will not both happen. Second, Easton compares the Chinese plan to the American WWII plan of invasion when it was held by Japan and finds the Chinese plan lacking, probably due to the fact that WWII American generals had a huge level of experience in amphibious assaults and the Chinese People's Liberation Army had none. The American plan is not so optimistic to expect a victory in fifteen days. Instead, it called for between 400,000 and 500,000 sailors, soldiers, and Marines to assault the southwestern coast, expecting to fight for three months to gain control over the island. American strategists expected 150,000 casualties. And this was to defeat a force of 100,000 on Taiwan, whereas the PRC would have needed to defeat 500,000 in 1950. So it seems unlikely that the US would have needed more troops and expected more casualties to defeat 100,000 than the PRC would have needed to defeat 500,000 five years later. So all of this is to say that the threat of Chinese invasion in 1950 may have been high had events not intervened, but the chances of Chinese victory were not.

    In one chapter of the book, Easton writes about what the warning signs will be of a Chinese invasion, and categorizes them into five groups of readiness, logistics, recon, propaganda, and subversion. He gives some examples of each:

1. Readiness

• Suspicious leadership meetings (CCP Politburo, CMC, and Eastern Theater Command)
• Establishment of leading small group/joint command for Taiwan (Beijing, Nanjing, and/or Fuzhou areas)
• Field deployments: theater missiles (Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang)
• Field deployments: strategic air defense batteries (Fujian, Greater Shanghai, Greater Guangzhou (S-400, S-300, HQ-9))
• Field deployments: army amphibious and airborne units (elements of the 1st, 31st, 12th, and 42nd group armies)
• Field deployments: fighter groups (20 major airbases near Taiwan)
• Mobilization of reserves and militia (Eastern, Southern, Northern, Central theater commands)Amphibious assault drills (Zhoushan, Pingtan, Dongshan)
• Ship and submarine sorties (East Sea Fleet at Ningbo, South Sea Fleet at Zhanjiang)
• Air and sea traffic restrictions (major cities including Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, etc.)
• Maritime militia fleet drills (ports of Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong)
• Nuclear testing (Lop Nur nuclear test site)

2. Logistics

• Stockpiling (oil, gas, coal, food, water, medicine, weapons, animals, etc.)
• Blood drives (Fujian and major PLA hospitals across China)
• Defense industrial surge (weapons, munitions, vehicles, aircraft, radios, parachutes, etc.)
• Port expansion surge (from Jiangsu to Hainan)
• Road and rail expansion surge (Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong)
• Airport hardening and resiliency surge (military and civil airfields within 500 miles of Taiwan)
• Shipyard production surge (amphibious assault ships, landing craft, mine sweepers, etc.)Fishing fleets and other commercial ships refitted (military radios, gun riveting, fire-fighting equipment)
• Coastal fortification projects (Fujian’s offshore islands)

3. Recon

• Intelligence ships and aircraft activities (Taiwan Strait area)
• Emergency satellite launches (Xichang, Sichuan, etc.)
• Orbital changes (for increased PLA coverage of Taiwan Strait area)
• Human intelligence operations (worldwide, with special focus on Taiwan and the United States)

4. Propaganda

• Propaganda campaign (strident themes)
• Influence operations (worldwide, with special focus on Taiwan and the United States)
• Diplomatic messaging operations (worldwide, with special focus on the United States and Japan)
• Nuclear blackmail (media and personal contacts)

5. Subversion

• Sabotage (financial, transportation/electric grid, water/fuel supplies)Abduction or assassination attempts (president of Taiwan and other key leaders and their families)
• Gang-related violence (Taiwanese night clubs, prison breaks, police station attacks)
• Violent protests, rioting, strikes (near Presidential Office Building in Taipei)
• Smuggling and infiltration (gun-running, intelligence agents in Taiwan)

    The geography of Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait is highly favorable to Taiwan. At its narrowest point, the Taiwan Strait is just 80 miles across, and becomes a wind tunnel thanks to Taiwanese mountains. The wind is so strong that trees on the Penghu Islands are stunted and grow wide rather than tall, since they would otherwise be uprooted. The waves are also strong, and there are "militarily significant waves" of over four feet 97% of the year. Due to the typhoon season, there are only eight good weeks to make a full crossing of the Strait, from late March to late April and from late September to late October, when winds are light and waves are low.

    Easton estimates that the PLA would send a million troops in an invasion of Taiwan, but that the number could be as low as 300,000. I think both of these numbers are low, although a million makes more sense. If Taiwan is able to mobilize its reserves, that adds over 200,000 defenders in a short period of time (days). But I am not sure how effective they are expected to be. The Taiwanese plan to respond to a Chinese invasion, the Gu'an Plan, contemplates scenarios as bad as US forces never arriving, US forces being too late to make a difference, and US forces being defeated. Easton writes that this separates Taiwanese strategy from South Korean and Japanese strategies, which are much more reliant on American support. But, according to a former Taiwanese defense minister, if American forces do not send support in the first thirty days, Taiwan is likely to succumb to the initial invasion and need to fight a guerrilla war.

    Easton recommends that Taiwan should focus on developing stronger counterstrike abilities to raise the cost of a Chinese invasion to the people of China, engineer more projects to fortify Taiwan and the islands it controls, and also further develop electronic warfare capabilities to make sure Taiwan's eyes and ears aren't blacked out in a war.

Miscellaneous Facts:

• The Communists were losing to the Nationalists throughout most of the Chinese Civil War, which had started in 1927, until 1948, when they won several victories and all but won the war in 1949, lacking control only in Taiwan.
• In January 1950, Dean Acheson (SecState) announced that Korea was out of the US defense perimeter in Asia, leading to the Korean War. But that same announcement also stated Taiwan would not be in the US defense perimeter, stoking Chinese aggression.
• The PLA used to shell Kinmen Island on odd-numbered days for twenty years from 1958-79. Taiwan hit them back on even-numbered days, and no harm was done apparently on either side. War is dumb.
• US President Jimmy Carter switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979 to try to align the US with China against the USSR.
• Taiwan has 23 million people and is about the size of Belgium.
• Apparently Taiwan has the capabilities to pump gasoline through pipes under their beaches to create an oil slick on the sea and then light that on fire as Chinese invaders arrive.
• Taipei is 390 miles from Okinawa, 420 from Shanghai, 500 from Hong Kong, 720 from Manila, and 5,000 miles from Honolulu.