Friday, November 18, 2022

Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its Disappearing Water by Marc Reisner

     Cadillac Desert is all about the damming of the West, done mostly by the Bureau of Reclamation. Reisner is a concerned environmentalist, and a strong critic of New Deal waste. He identifies a critical problem with spending plans- that they can't ever stop. Once a congressman gets funding for a major project in his district, another congressman wants the same. Reisner writes that "Congress without water projects would be like an engine without oil; it would simply seize up." The even more critical problem is the combination of the tremendous desire of Americans to move West and tame the high plains and deserts with agriculture with the unyielding power of nature to destroy those plans. Simply put, there are some places that nature forbids to man, and while we can make them work for us for some decades, we cannot do so in the long run. That is what this book is about.

    This book details what goes on beyond the isohyet (line connecting regions of equal rainfall) running through Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, where satellite maps show a quick transition from green to brown. The book proceeds in a more or less chronological order. The stories told stretch back into the later nineteenth century, but some of the difficulties in dealing with nature stretch back into eternity. For example, the Laramie Plains of Wyoming, imagined by pioneers as fertile, virgin land for farming like in Ilinois, are actually five thousand feet higher than comparable lands in Illinois, have a growing season fifty days shorter, and receive only a third as much rainfall. Naturally, when farmers settled these lands, they became dependent on lobbying for massive federal subsidies to maintain their existence. The results were a massive federal irrigation program and a half-century "rampage" of dam development at public expense. Reisner writes that, "The permanence of our dams will merely impress the archaeologists; their numbers will leave them in awe." He notes that a quarter of a million dams of one size or another have been built in the United States in the 20th century. Most are just small earthen plugs cross streams to divert water or raise fish. Fifty thousand are "major works" that dam rivers of real size, and even without those, there are still a few thousand truly big dams that stagger the imagination when one tries to conceive of their construction.

    Early portions of the book feature John Wesley Powell, a geologist of great influence of the later 1800s. But his influence did not control Congress. Whereas he recommended that inhospitable regions of the West be used for raising livestock, giving settlers 2,560 acres of land but water enough to only irrigate twenty, Congress passed the Reclamation Act in 1902, giving everyone 160 acres (or 320 for a man and wife) regardless of whether they settled in Mediterranean-like regions of California or the cold, high plains of Wyoming. You could grow a lot on those 160 acres in the central valley of California, but in Montana, you would come to nothing. Even in parts of California, there is more desert than people realize: Los Angeles is drier than Beirut and San Francisco is just slightly rainier than Chihuahua. There was not a single tree growing in San Francisco when the Spanish arrived- the aridity and the wind saw to that.

    To solve some of California's water issues, the state worked with the federal government on the Central Valley Project starting in the 1930s. Using dams, canals, wells, and pumps, the project sought to irrigate the area from Redding to Bakersfield. The project doesn't have any "end," and it has been a massive success in many ways. But its success has also been its failure. Through induced demand, California is no more water secure today than when the project was initiated. Take one test well in the southern Tulare Basin for example, where the aquifer had dropped sixty feet between 1920 and 1960, when the first CVP water arrived. From 1960 to 1969, the water table rose twenty feet, but just three years later, it had dropped by thirty-three feet. Why? Because farmers had just become accustomed to using more water and more farmers had moved in. In Kern County as an example, the average famer went from pumping from 275 feet during WWII to pumping from 460 feet by 1965. There was three times as much irrigated land in production in the 1960s as there was in the 1930s. The effect of the CVP was essentially not to make better use of water, but to dramatically expand water usage along with its availability. Induced demand!


Miscellaneous Facts: 

  • During the four decades following the Civil War, 183 million acres were sold or given by the federal government to railroad companies
  • If the Colorado River stopped flowing, people could survive four years based on the carrying capacity of reservoirs before people would need to evacuate from California, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah. 
  • The Colorado River is not a big river in terms of annual flow, by which it does not feature even in the top twenty-five in the United States.
  • Hoover Dam was originally called Boulder Dam.
  • The Hoover Dam was so large and heavy that the dam's size and weight would create superpressures inside of it that would generate and retain heat such that, left to its own devices, the dam would take over 100 years to cool down and settle, remaining a superhot liquid on the inside until then. To solve that problem, engineers filled the dam with pipes that ran cold water through it as they built the dam.
  • There is some significant NIMBYism present in California water law. Former Governor of California Edmund Brown Sr. admitted that part of why he wanted to send water south to LA was because he was from Northern California and he didn't want more people moving up north.
  • Part of the reason that Louisiana and New Orleans are sinking into the sea (which I read all about in The Control of Nature by John McPhee) is that all the silt that used to travel down the Mississippi River is now trapped behind dams, which may also have an effect on the Mississippi River trying to change course down Athafalaya way.
  • British Columbia has the 3rd, 4th, 7th, 8th, and 19th largest rivers in North America and holds between four and ten percent of the world's accessible and renewable fresh water, receiving over 200 inches of rain annually.

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Never Split the Difference: Negotiating as if Your Life Depended on It by Chris Voss with Tahl Raz

     Never Split the Difference is an extremely readable guide to winning negotiations. Voss mainly focuses on techniques that seek to ask questions that identify the main obstacle to a deal and empathizing between the parties at a negotiation. Voss is a former FBI hostage negotiator, so he teaches a strategy of negotiation that is not about getting to something in the middle for both parties-"splitting the difference"-rather, Voss wants to win negotiations, since you can't get half a hostage.

    One technique that came up a lot is "mirroring." Mirroring is when you repeat back the last three words or one to three critical words that a person has just said. It is highly effective on aggressive or powerful people, such as when you are negotiating a pay raise with your boss, because they want to feel heard and they want their authority acknowledged and respected. It works by using a calming tone, and saying something like, "I'm sorry..." as in "I'm sorry, 3% this year?" And then silence of at least four seconds. And repeat. This works to get the other party to reconsider what they just said or proposed without you having to say a solid "no."

    Another important technique is "labeling." Voss writes that labeling emotions is an effective way to get the other party to reveal how they feel in a negotiation and give up valuable information. IT may sound like saying, "It seems like..." or "It sounds like..." and avoids using the pronoun "I" because it can get people's guard up when they remember that you are two different individuals negotiating across a table. This is honestly a really good technique I think just for daily life since people can relate better to each other when they label one another's emotions. I think Buddhists teach that in meditation you're supposed to label your thoughts as well.

    Voss also emphasizes empathy as a way to get what you want. In many conversations, someone just wants to be able to express their opinions or feelings. If you can understand what they're saying and show that you understand it, they are much more willing to give you what you want. I imagine this could work in a plea negotiation for a criminal defendant in which the defendant's lawyer acknowledges the prosecutors worldview by saying identifying why the prosecutor does what they do or why they feel strongly about prosecuting this crime. 

    It is also valuable to use "how" questions to get to a better result. In hostage negotiations, this sounds like "How are we supposed to know she is alive?" or "How am I supposed to pay you?" This can help you get more time and makes the other party feel like they are in control. Their answers may also reveal valuable information. In reality, your questions may constrain your counterpart, but they will feel like they are in control and feel comfortable giving you what you want since they think its their own choice. There's a really good question-asking script that Voss uses in the book that lets you use "how" questions to say no or something otherwise negative as well as some of the other techniques:

1.A “No”-oriented email question to reinitiate contact: “Have you given up on settling this amicably?”

2.A statement that leaves only the answer of “That’s right” to form a dynamic of agreement: “It seems that you feel my bill is not justified.”

3.Calibrated questions about the problem to get him to reveal his thinking: “How does this bill violate our agreement?”

4.More “No”-oriented questions to remove unspoken barriers: “Are you saying I misled you?” “Are you saying I didn’t do as you asked?” “Are you saying I reneged on our agreement?” or “Are you saying I failed you?”

5.Labeling and mirroring the essence of his answers if they are not acceptable so he has to consider them again: “It seems like you feel my work was subpar.” Or “. . . my work was subpar?”

6.A calibrated question in reply to any offer other than full payment, in order to get him to offer a solution: “How am I supposed to accept that?”

7.If none of this gets an offer of full payment, a label that flatters his sense of control and power: “It seems like you are the type of person who prides himself on the way he does business—rightfully so—and has a knack for not only expanding the pie but making the ship run more efficiently.”

8.A long pause and then one more “No”-oriented question: “Do you want to be known as someone who doesn’t fulfill agreements?”

    When its time to get down to brass tacks and negotiate specific numbers, Voss uses something called the Ackerman method, which has a few steps designed to get you to a good number. You set a target number that you want to reach of the thing you're buying. Then you set a first offer at 65% of your target price and calculate three raises of decreasing increments (85%, 95%, and 100% of the target price). Use lots of empathy and different ways of saying no to get the other side to counter before you increase your offer. Then, when calculating the final amount, use a precise, nonround number. That gives your number credibility and weight. And on your final number, throw in some nonmonetary item that they probably don't even want. That will show them that you're at your limit without you having to say it.

    At the end of the book, Voss emphasizes that even though the goal of this book is to teach you how to win negotiations, it is important for everyone to embrace regular, thoughtful conflict as a way to live. Genuine, honest conflict is productive and helps people solve problems in a collaborative way. Looking out for your own interest is not selfish as long as you are an honest, decent person.

Miscellaneous Facts:

  • Voss says that the more your counterpart uses "I," "me," and "my," the less power they actually have to make a deal. But if they use "we" a lot, you are probably talking to someone who is a decision-maker.
  • In the same pronoun-theme as the above, using your own name can be helpful if you can naturally squeezing it in. People like you better and see you as human if they know your name. Voss calls it the "Chris discount" because he can ask at a store if they have any discounts, and if they say no, usually he can get away with a discount if he asks for a "Chris discount." They think its funny and try to help him out.